During a comprehensive panel discussion hosted by ACLED, a renowned geopolitical conflict database company, experts delved into the transformative dynamics unfolding in Sudan’s ongoing war. The key focus of the discourse revolved around the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) gaining a distinct upper hand in the conflict, fueled by a combination of strategic restructuring efforts within SAF and increasing fragmentation within the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). These developments were analyzed not only for their immediate impact on the Sudanese battlefield but also for their far-reaching implications on the geopolitics of the broader Horn of Africa region, with particular emphasis on Ethiopia.
The SAF’s resurgence was attributed, in large part, to a series of deliberate and methodical restructuring initiatives. The panelists elaborated on how SAF leadership, recognizing the evolving challenges of the war, prioritized the reorganization of their command structures. This included streamlining communication channels, enhancing coordination among different divisions, and investing in comprehensive training programs for new recruits. These measures, while arduous to implement in the midst of conflict, proved instrumental in bolstering SAF’s operational efficiency. It enabled them to execute well-coordinated offensives that not only reclaimed key territories but also disrupted RSF’s logistical and tactical capabilities.
In stark contrast to SAF’s systematic approach, the RSF has struggled with internal discord and fragmentation. The panelists highlighted how divisions within RSF’s leadership have sowed confusion and undermined unity within its ranks. Disputes over territorial control, resources, and decision-making authority have created a fractured and incoherent command structure. These issues have compounded the RSF’s inability to mount a cohesive defense against SAF’s advances, leaving them increasingly vulnerable.
The discussion then pivoted to explore the wider geopolitical ramifications of these developments, particularly in the context of Ethiopia. As noted by the panelists, the conflict in Sudan has created a complex web of alliances and interests that extend beyond its borders. Ethiopia, in particular, finds itself at the intersection of these dynamics, with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) reportedly aligning with RSF, while the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE), bolstered by its strategic partnership with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) during the Tigray war, has chosen to back SAF.
This alignment has added layers of complexity to Ethiopia’s stance on the Sudan war, especially in light of its unprotected and porous border with Sudan. The panel emphasized the role of Fano militias, an independent and decentralized Amhara fighting force, in further complicating the border region’s stability. The lack of formalized control or oversight over these militias has created a volatile environment, with potential spillover effects that could exacerbate regional tensions.
Furthermore, the panelists drew attention to the historical context of Ethiopia’s involvement in regional conflicts and how its relationships with key actors, such as the UAE, have influenced its current position. The UAE’s support for SAF, driven by broader strategic interests in the Red Sea region and its role as a key ally to Ethiopia during the Tigray war, underscores the interconnected nature of these geopolitical conflicts. This multifaceted dynamic raises critical questions about Ethiopia’s long-term strategy and its ability to navigate these alliances without further destabilizing its own internal and external security.
The panel also explored the potential consequences of SAF’s growing dominance in the Sudan war. While this shift in power dynamics represents a significant development, it also presents new challenges for regional stability. The unprotected border shared by Ethiopia and Sudan remains a persistent source of insecurity, with the potential for cross-border skirmishes and the movement of armed groups. The panelists stressed the importance of addressing these vulnerabilities through coordinated regional efforts, including enhanced border security measures and diplomatic engagement.
In conclusion, the panel discussion underscored the complexity of the Sudan war and its implications for the broader Horn of Africa region. The SAF’s rise, driven by strategic restructuring and RSF’s fragmentation, represents a pivotal moment in the conflict, with far-reaching consequences for neighboring countries like Ethiopia. As the situation continues to evolve, the need for cohesive regional strategies and cooperative frameworks becomes increasingly urgent. This discussion serves as a reminder of the interconnectedness of these conflicts and the critical role of diplomacy and collaboration in achieving sustainable peace and stability.
