When Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed addressed Ethiopia’s parliament, he proudly stated that his government is the only one in over 100 years to avoid war with neighboring countries. At face value, it sounds like an achievement worthy of applause. After all, previous regimes, including the Derg under Mengistu Hailemariam, were involved in external wars with countries like Somalia and Eritrea. But the reality under Abiy’s leadership tells a different story. While Ethiopia hasn’t fought its neighbors, the internal conflicts his policies have fueled have devastated the nation.
Ethiopia might not be at war with outsiders, but it is deeply at war with itself.
The Internal Toll of Abiy’s Leadership
Abiy Ahmed’s push for centralization—wrapped in the rhetoric of unifying Ethiopia—has ignited tensions across the country. The Tigray War is a prime example. Triggered by a dispute between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), this brutal conflict has caused an estimated 500,000 deaths at the absolute bare minimum. Families have been torn apart, civilians have starved, and access to healthcare has collapsed, creating one of the worst humanitarian disasters in recent history. And this is only one chapter in a growing story of unrest.
Elsewhere, conflicts in the Amhara and Oromo regions have also erupted into violence. Armed resistance movements have risen in defiance of Abiy’s centralizing policies, leading to tens of thousands of deaths and the displacement of millions. Far from fostering unity, these policies have driven division deeper, leaving communities fractured and distrust rampant.
A Grim Comparison: Mengistu vs. Abiy
Abiy Ahmed often positions himself as distinct from leaders like Mengistu Hailemariam, particularly in avoiding external wars. But when you compare the outcomes of their leadership, the parallels are striking.
Mengistu’s rule was defined by events like the Ogaden War, the Eritrean War of Independence, and the notorious Red Terror, which together resulted in about 1.2 million deaths over 17 years. Mengistu, a military man with the rank of colonel, used violence and fear to enforce his vision of a unified Ethiopia, alienating entire regions and sparking rebellion.
Now consider Abiy. In just seven years, nearly 1 million Ethiopians have died in internal conflicts—whether in Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, or elsewhere. Like Mengistu, Abiy also rose to prominence with a military background, having achieved the rank of colonel. His leadership has followed a familiar pattern: using centralized power and military force to impose a vision of unity. And just like under Mengistu, the results have been catastrophic.
Both leaders share a common goal: a unified Ethiopia. But the unification measures they’ve taken—heavy-handed centralization, suppression of dissent, and violent crackdowns—have led to chaos. While Mengistu fought external wars in pursuit of his ideology, Abiy’s war has been internal, yet equally destructive.
Abiy’s “Peace” Is No Comfort
Abiy’s argument before parliament—that his government has avoided war with neighboring countries—ignores the immense suffering caused by internal wars. Yes, previous regimes like Mengistu’s waged wars beyond Ethiopia’s borders, but at least some of those were inevitable battles for sovereignty. The conflicts under Abiy’s rule, however, have been entirely avoidable. They were sparked by his own policies of centralization and his unwillingness to engage in meaningful dialogue with Ethiopia’s diverse regions.
What good is avoiding war with neighbors if your own country is in flames? Under Abiy’s leadership, millions of Ethiopians have been displaced. Families have been torn apart, infrastructure destroyed, and economic progress stalled. The unity Abiy speaks of has come at a devastating cost to the very people he claims to serve.
The Verdict
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed may celebrate his government’s record on avoiding external wars, but the price Ethiopia has paid internally is far greater. Comparing him to Mengistu Hailemariam, the similarities are undeniable: both leaders have pursued a vision of unity at all costs, and both have left their country fractured and bleeding as a result.
Abiy’s legacy won’t be defined by the absence of external wars but by the internal devastation of his time in office. Ethiopia hasn’t fought its neighbors, but under Abiy Ahmed, it has been fighting itself—and the toll has been immense.
